- September ends with Brent trading c. $85/bbl, down c. $9/bbl on a month ago but rising against mid-month prices, as Russia calls up conscripts for its invasion of Ukraine
- We forecast global demand growth of 2.12 million b/d for 2022 (-40,000 b/d on previous), which would keep demand below 2019 levels for another year • There are significant concerns about global economic growth for 2023 as high energy prices continue to bite
- We forecast global supply growth of 4.44 million b/d in 2022 (+930,000 b/d on previous)
- Losses to Russian production will be smaller than anticipated and fall mostly in 2023, as the EU puts its price cap negotiations on hold, though December will be 1 million b/d below January 2022
- OPEC+ meet on 5th October expecting to cut, after Russia has proposed a 1 million b/d quota reduction
- Any actual production cuts would have to come from those members meeting or almost meeting their quotas, i.e. primarily Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and its allies
- We see inventories building 610,000 b/d on average in 2022, and 480,000 b/d in 2023 on current policies. Changes to OPEC+ policy wo...
Please log in to view
the rest of this report.
Not yet a subscriber?
If you do not yet have an account with us and would like to register or find out more, please contact us using our client services form, send an email to admin@petrologica.com or call us on +44(0)1206 823 295.
Contact us today!
by Graham Walker // 3 October, 2022
← Back to Blog