- September begins with Brent trading c. $94/bbl, down c. $6/bbl on a month ago, as the high demand summer season ends and concerns over the global economy crystallise
- We forecast global demand growth of 2.16 million b/d for 2022 (-50,000 b/d on previous), which would keep demand below 2019 levels for another year
- European nations have drawn up plans for energy shortages this winter, while the Chinese city of Chengdu has entered a fresh lockdown
- We forecast global supply growth of 3.53 million b/d in 2022 (-220,000 b/d on previous)
- Russia has been able to export to both India and China over the summer, but it remains to be seen whether its production rate can be sustained during periods of weaker demand
- OPEC+ meet on 5th September, with the most likely outcome little to no change in quotas, despite recent comments by Saudi energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, referring to a production cut
- The Prince stated that negotiations over a fresh quota agreement have not yet begun, which suggests any cut would be tied to the return of Iranian barrels to the market, and would be a Gulf state matter ...
by Graham Walker // 3 September, 2022
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