In February, Brent crude oil has stabilised around $82/bbl as concerns about global demand are tempering the risk premium of geopolitical tensions.
IMF raises global economic growth forecast to 3.1% (+0.2 p.p.) for 2024, anticipating a soft landing. Persistent inflation in US, UK, and Eurozone delays interest rate cuts; Red Sea attacks raise shipping costs, contributing to inflation.
Uncertainty persists regarding Chinese economic slowdown and oil demand.
Forecast maintains oil demand growth at 1.63 mb/d for 2024, led by non-OECD countries, particularly China and India.
Non-OPEC production growth is expected to continue with global supply forecasted to grow 1.43 mb/d. US LTO will still lead the growth albeit at a slower pace.
Weaker demand outlook likely to see OPEC+ maintain the current cut agreement throughout 2024 to balance the market.
2024 poised for heightened upstream activity, with emphasis on deepwater.
