The first week of November ends with Brent trading c. $98/bbl, up c. $5/bbl on a month ago after an OPEC+ quota cut of 2 million b/d
Our global demand growth of 2.12 million b/d for 2022 (unchanged on previous), which would keep demand below 2019 levels for another year
Concerns about global economic growth for 2023 are growing as energy high prices, Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s economic issues all continue
The practical effect of the new OPEC+ quotas is a 1 million b/d cut to production from August levels, primarily from OPEC countries close to quota: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Iraq
We forecast global supply growth of 4.13 million b/d in 2022 (-310,000 b/d on previous) factoring in this cut and reductions in Russian and Kazakh output
Global supply growth falls to 1.23 million b/d in 2023 on OPEC+’s current quotas, as Russian exports decline from January in response to European sanctions
We see inventories building 510,000 b/d on average in 2022 (-100,000 on previous), and 30,000 b/d in 2023 (-450,000 b/d on previous) on current policies
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