In mid March Brent crude surged above $85/bbl for the first time in 11 months due to an improved global demand outlook and Russian refinery outages caused by Ukraine drone attacks. IEA predicts demand surpassing supply if OPEC+ extends cuts through 2024.

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged but hinted at three potential rate cuts this year if inflation approaches 2%. They also upgraded the US economic growth forecast from 1.4% to 2.1%, fuelling optimism in oil prices.

The Baltimore bridge collapse, caused by a ship collision, may have implications for supply chains and inflation.

Our demand growth forecast for 2024 is revised up slightly to stand at 1.67 mb/d, with US and Indian revised upwards.

EIA raised up its Brent forecast to average $87.00/bbl (+$4.58/bbl) for 2024 and $84.80/bbl (+$5.32/bbl) for 2025 respectively citing OPEC+ extending production cuts.

US crude production grew 1 mb/d in 2023, including 550,000 b/d from LTO, but growth is expected to slow to half that rate this year. US and Canadian output rebounded after an Arctic blast in January, with further increases anticipated in March.

Recent deepwater discoveries, like Calao in Ivory Coast and Kaiping South in the South China Sea, along with finds offshore Namibia, are expected to stimulate more E&P activities.

Maintaining our projection of OPEC+ cuts until 2Q2024, a gradual unwind could lead to a small supply surplus of 260,000 b/d this year, possibly shifting to a deficit if cuts continue through 2024.

Renewables and Green Energy Developments: TotalEnergies submitted a feasibility study for a green hydrogen project in Mauritania, while Bloomberg reports a slowdown in EV demand.