OMS_September 2016

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Oil Market Snapshot – September 2016 A Little More Speculation, A Little More Action

Potential production deal partners ramp production even as they hint at agreement Speculation ahead of the OPEC/Russia meeting on 27th September saw Brent volatile with fluctuations in $45-$50/bbl range. Market sentiment was generally bearish, as Libya and Nigeria increased export targets, US inventories continued to grow, and demand slowed in India and China. We see a relatively small rise of 300,000 b/d in global supply in 2016, as losses in non-OPEC production are offset by Iran’s return and OPEC growth. We see larger global supply growth in 2017, however, on a new US LTO forecast that accounts for greater resilience in the Permian basin. We see the North Sea declining in coming years as low prices hamper brownfield developments and enhanced oil recovery efforts that have supported production in recent years. Though the Fort McMurray fire will impact this year’s production, we have upgraded our Canadian oil sands forecast through to 2020 as more projects are approved.

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