An emerging industry consensus sees strong long-term growth from LTO, but the capital costs will be high. North Dakota's oil production fell to 1.027 million b/d in June from 1.047 million b/d in May, in line with our forecast. Production has returned to previously observed decline rates after outages in April. There is a growing analyst and industry consensus that technological improvements will drive a strong longrange LTO production rebound commencing in early 2017. We argue that cost and technological improvements are overstated, estimates of ultimate recovery are likely overdone and capital may not be available to fund a second ‘shale revolution’.