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Oil Market Snapshot – April 2016

  • Brent has risen to hold around $45/bbl in April, boosted mainly by EIA reports of declining US LTO production
  • The last-minute collapse of negotiations on a production freeze has had little lasting effect on prices
  • Our Brent price forecast remains largely unchanged, at $38.24/bbl and $47.48/bbl for 2016 and 2017 respectively
  • The market is getting closer to demand/supply balance, driving prices upward, but in the short-term price prices will continue to be driven by technical factors
  • Non-OPEC production decline is likely to accelerate, largely due to US LTO and reduction from other high cost basins such as Norway, where ten fields are being shut-in early
  • Meanwhile OPEC production holds steady, with 1.95 million b/d in new production capacity being brought online between 2016 and 2020

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