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Bakken Monitor – April 2016

  • North Dakota's oil production fell to 1.122 million b/d in January from 1.152 million b/d in December (-30,000 b/d), in line with our forecast of 1.127 million b/d
  • High decline rates from recent wells dominate production trends at present as many independents halt completions
  • Our February production forecast has been increased to 1.098 million b/d (-24,000 b/d m-o-m, +9,000 b/d on last forecast), while our provisional forecast for March is 1.059 million b/d
  • Our total US LTO 2016 production forecast remains unchanged from last month
  • The industry is braced for revolver facility cuts of up to 30% according to recent survey data from Haynes and Boone LLP
  • While the industry approaches cash flow neutrality, the large debt burden and persistently low WTI price suggests a worse recovery than in 2009
  • EIA/IHS well cost estimates show that a like-for-like well costs slightly more in 2015 than in 2006, when adjusting for inflation
  • We argue that the service market, dictated by the oil price, plays the dominant role in determining well costs

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