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Oil Market Snapshot – May 2016 Foresight in the Desert?

Saudi Arabia likely to want moderated oil prices to support Vision2030 policies as Al-Naimi retires Brent rose above $50/bbl on 26th May on continued supply disruptions and inventories falling faster than expected, before falling back. The EIA see Brent recovering to almost $60/bbl by end of 2017. India takes the stage as we forecast the country’s demand growth matching China’s this year. However, China’s economic growth is expected to hold steady, limiting further crude demand growth. Industry restructuring continues with three more large bankruptcies in the US LTO patch and a merger in the service sector. Deepwater drilling has been curtailed by 30% so far this year, with little new work in 2016 as Big Oil slashes capex. OPEC production holds at record of 32.440 million b/d as outages in Nigeria, Venezuela and Libya are outpaced by additions from Iran, Iraq and UAE. Saudi Arabia underscores its commitment to wide-ranging reforms (Vision 2030) by replacing veteran oil minister Ali Al-Naimi.

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