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Bakken Monitor – June 2016

  • North Dakota's oil production fell to 1.109 million b/d in March from 1.118 million b/d in February (-9,000 b/d), in line with our forecast of 1.110 million b/d
  • We have lowered our April production forecast to 1.082 million b/d (-27,000 b/d m-o-m, -6,000 b/d on last forecast) as reported well completion activity fell
  • Our total average US LTO forecast for 2016 remains unchanged at 3.953 million b/d (-586,000 b/d y-o-y), with a similar decline expected in 2017
  • Some analysts see a swift turn around in LTO capex as prices rise above $50/bbl WTI and companies become cash flow neutral or even positive
  • However, for many companies, and for the industry generally, cash flow neutrality is indicative of a lethal collapse in capex
  • For stronger companies like EOG higher prices may well see increased activity

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