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OPEC's Algerian meeting produces agreement in principle, but LTO may take time to recover. North Dakota's oil production rose to 1.030 million b/d in July from 1.027 million b/d in June, beating our expectations. The surprise increase reflects better-than-expected second and third month production from wells completed earlier in the year. OPEC’s informal meeting in Algiers (27th September) has produced an agreement in principle, but we are sceptical of a swift turnaround in US LTO production. Our updated US LTO forecast is based on an improved model for the Permian basin, which has seen the bulk of LTO activity this year. We see Permian LTO production up 16% in 2016 as the other US LTO areas decrease by 10% y-o-y.