DNB's latest Oil Market Outlook predicted the oil price to fall to $90 or to $77/bbl in real 2012 terms by 2020. DNB seems to have overreacted to short-term trends or to have failed to consider important long-term trends and factors. Much of DNB's analysis is based on a shale oil bonanza boosting U.S. oil output to Iraqi levels and a very low decline rate, both of which are simply unrealistic.