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Oil Market Snapshot – March 2018 Fed Up Of Rex - Tillerson Out, Bolton In, Iran Sanctions Next?

Brent dipped during early March to c. $65/bbl, but has settled at c. $69/bbl as of 21st March as crude inventories continue to fall counter-seasonally. Fed confidence in the US economy suggests rate rises will come soon, while Trump’s replacement of Rex Tillerson suggests sanctions on Iran, potentially restricting supply. Our March price forecast has been revised marginally lower. Our global demand growth forecast for 2018 is unchanged, while the IEA has again revised their forecast upward. Our global supply growth forecast for 2018 is slightly lower, while 2019 is unchanged. As US LTO outspent cash flow yet again in 2017, our 2018 US LTO production growth outlook remains at 1 million b/d. We take a look at offshore drilling prospects in Asia-Pacific, where there are slim pickings for oil but gas is more hopeful. OPEC production falls, as Venezuela’s output continues to collapse....

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