- In February, Brent crude oil has stabilised around $82/bbl as concerns about global demand are tempering the risk premium of geopolitical tensions.
- IMF raises global economic growth forecast to 3.1% (+0.2 p.p.) for 2024, anticipating a soft landing. Persistent inflation in US, UK, and Eurozone delays interest rate cuts; Red Sea attacks raise shipping costs, contributing to inflation.
- Uncertainty persists regarding Chinese economic slowdown and oil demand.
- Forecast maintains oil demand growth at 1.63 mb/d for 2024, led by non-OECD countries, particularly China and India.
- Non-OPEC production growth is expected to continue with global supply forecasted to grow 1.43 mb/d. US LTO will still lead the growth albeit at a slower pace.
by Fay Chen // 24 April, 2024
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