- Red Sea shipping disruption due to escalating Houthi attacks leads to Brent prices surging above $80/bbl, with potential for further increases.
- Future market volatility expected amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Hamas escalation, and China's economic challenges impacting oil demand.
- OPEC announces an additional 2.2 mb/d cuts for 1Q24; markets respond negatively, viewing the agreement as insufficient.
- Revised global oil demand lowered to 2.2 mb/d for this year, primarily due to China's economic challenges; 2024 forecast remains at 1.53 mb/d.
- Anticipated 1.50 mb/d global production growth in 2023, driven by non-OPEC, with US LTO exceeding expectations; US crude production hits a record 13.24 mb/d in September.
- 2024 projection: 1.34 mb/d growth with additional OPEC cuts, resulting in a small supply surplus.
- COP28 agreement criticised for lacking a fossil fuel phase-out plan.
by Fay Chen // 26 January, 2024
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