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Bakken Monitor – September 2018 Earnings Season: Capex Up, Free Cash Flow Down

North Dakota's oil production retreats in June to 1.226 million b/d (-20,000 b/d m-o-m), in line with our forecast of 1.228 million b/d (or -18,000 b/d m-o-m). We see production reaching a fresh high in July at 1.255 million b/d (+29,000 b/d m-o-m), with completions back at May levels. With the second quarter in the books, we take a look at key metrics for the LTO sector. Capex is up 15% y-o-y, but comments from the service companies suggest 3Q18 production growth may disappoint. A New York Times op-ed that calls into question the financial basis of LTO has been slammed by many – but we argue that, though flawed, it has some salience....

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