- North Dakota oil production fell from 1.190 in March to 1.168 million b/d in April vs. our estimate of an increase to 1.22 million b/d as legacy decline rates surged.
- We expect the fall to continue in May before a slight rise in June, revising our May and June forecasts to 1.147 million b/d and 1.152 million b/d respectively.
- Under this scenario, production would peak in August at 1.176 million b/d. Our forecast for average production in 2015 is now 1.17 million b/d (+90,000 b/d y-o-y).
- We see US lower 48 crude production growing by 520,000 b/d to 7.732 million b/d in 2015 (-234,000 b/d on our previous forecast), and falling by 50,000 b/d in 2016.
- The rig count decline continues but has slowed in recent months, falling to an average of 79 rigs per day in June (-134 from June 2013 peak, -4 m-o-m).
- The declining rig count will mostly have a long-term effect due to its impact on the ‘fracklog’.
- EOG leads the way in well quality and fiscal control, but financing remains the major downside risk to North Dakota oil production from 4Q2015 onwards
by Graham Walker // 9 July, 2015
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