Bakken-Monitor-February 2016

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Bakken Monitor – February 2016

  • North Dakota oil production increased slightly to 1.176 million b/d in November from 1.169 million b/d in October, in line with our high case of 1.179 million b/d
  • Operators again forced more production from old wells in anticipation of a price cut following OPEC’s December meeting, while new well completions fell
  • We thus increase our forecast to 1.163 million b/d for December (-13,000 b/d m-o-m, +44,000 b/d on last forecast), though we see some upside risk to our estimate if production gains can still be found from choke management
  • We now expect average 2015 production of 1.184 million b/d (+102,000 b/d y-o-y), while forecasting average 2016 production of 980,000 b/d (-204,000 y-o-y)
  • Hess and Continental, two of the top three North Dakota oil producers, have announced 2016 capex cuts of 40% and 66% respectively
  • Though Continental forecasts only a 10% company-wide average production decline, we expect a 34% production decline from Dec15-Dec16 in North Dakota, the company’s most prolific region

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