- North Dakota oil production rose to 1.201 million b/d in May from 1.168 in April vs. our estimate of a decline to 1.147 million b/d as better wells were completed
- We expect completions to hold steady and raise our June and July forecasts to 1.220 million b/d and 1.218 million b/d, respectively
- Under this scenario, we forecast production to peak in September at 1.247 million b/d
- Our estimate for average production in 2015 is now 1.212 million b/d (+132,000 b/d y-o-y)
- We see total US LTO production growing by 455,000 b/d to 4.465 million b/d in 2015 before falling by 253,000 b/d in 2016 to 4.392 million b/d
- As highlighted in our April report, companies have been unable to significantly improve production by a ‘retreat to the core’ strategy, though more efficient fracking techniques appear to support volumes
- We continue our overview of the industry in the Bakken, examining the smaller companies, their hedge positions, and the increased risk of reserve value write-downs
by Alexander Wilk // 4 August, 2015
← Back to Blog