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Bakken Monitor – April 2017 Permania Has Landed

With bankruptcies falling, land prices in the Permian double to average $40,000/acre. North Dakota's oil production recovered to 980,294 b/d (+38,000 b/d m-o-m) in January as wells shut-in due to poor weather partially returned, in the upper third of our forecasted range of 0.931 – 1.0 million b/d. We see February production of 1.023 million b/d as the remaining shut in production returns. Our average US LTO production forecast for 2017 remains unchanged. In line with our analysis of a year ago, well costs are rising as activity returns, potentially hampering the production recovery. The Dakota Access Pipeline is set to open in April, lowering transport costs longer term, though we expect the immediate effect on production to be muted. As bankruptcies tail off, mergers and acquisitions in the Permian continue apace, with land prices nearly doubling in 2016 to average $40,000/acre.

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