Despite economic transformations in Asia (chief among which is China’s move towards a service economy), the oil price crash and continued population growth will keep demand buoyant as long as a deflationary spiral is avoided; Oversupply remains this year but demand-supply balance will start to improve on the back of strong annual demand growth of 1.2 mb/d that exceeds essentially flat supply from 2017, leading to a price rebound; The “Lower for Longer” mantra ignores full-cycle costs, and therefore the impact low prices have by curbing investment and future supply; US LTO producers are forced to cut spending – LTO production will decline faster by more than 1 mb/d during 2016 and 2017.