- North Dakota oil production remains more or less static, falling from 1.211 in June to 1.201 million b/d in July, marginally above our estimate of 1.191 million b/d
- Our August production estimate is now 1.183 million b/d as operators have shifted away from McKenzie, the county which contains the best acreage
- We expect this to mark the beginning of the end for shale’s determined resistance in the face of low prices
- Our forecast for average production in 2015 is now 1.174 million b/d (+91,000 b/d y-o-y; -2,000 b/d on previous forecast), falling to 983,000 b/d in 2016 (-2,000 b/d on previous forecast)
- Companies have claimed to have increased ultimate recovery, basing this on higher initial production (IP) rates
- However, our statistical analysis of all existing Bakken wells shows that as IPs get higher the relationship with EUR weakens, consistent with a hypothesis of manipulation of IP rates
- Though recent years have seen improvements in early production, our data suggest that gains are not sustained across well life-times
by Graham Walker // 5 October, 2015
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