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Oil Market Snapshot – July 2017 Don't Ecuador Hit You On The Way Out

Falling US inventories and firm words after the OPEC/non-OPEC compliance meeting help lift prices, even as Ecuador announces it will leave the agreement. Brent has risen to c. $52/bbl as OPEC production and export cuts, and the summer driving season bring US commercial inventories below 500 million bbl. On weaker prices in June and uncertainty in market fundamentals, we lower our annual average Brent forecast. Our global oil demand forecasts have been revised marginally upward. Chinese oil demand growth remains robust, while Indian demand growth is recovering but may see some turbulence from a new taxation policy. Releasing its World Energy Investment 2017 report, the IEA sees US LTO costs rising this year while costs for other forms of production continue to fall, though more slowly.  Our latest research shows the UK and Norway are seeing some recovery as a result of falling costs, with both countries looking to the fresh frontier areas of West of Shetlands and the Barents Sea. The OPEC/non-OPEC compliance meeting on 24th July set new targets for Nigeria and saw Saudi Arabia announce an export cap for August of 6.6 million b/d, raising prices. However, in a move OPEC delegates hope does not set a precedent, Ecuador has announced it has abandoned involvement in the production cut deal....

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