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Demand-side political risk makes a comeback with Brexit, European terror and Turkish instability Brent remains off its June highs as economic uncertainty from recent geopolitical events and a refined products glut weigh on prices. US crude demand growth shows signs of weakening as the start of the driving season fails to dent gasoline stocks. China’s economy continues to slow, although the declared ‘One Belt, One Road’ policy targets long-term regional economic growth. US LTO production continues its decline but Goldman Sachs estimates Russia growing production by 590,000 b/d by 2018, contradicting the IEA’s forecasts of a production decline. OPEC production reached 32.858 million b/d in June (+240,000 b/d m-o-m). We revise our OPEC production forecasts upwards accordingly.