Oil Cover

Oil Market Snapshot – January 2014

  • Short-term price forecasting model extended by one year; our revised average oil price estimate is $105.27/bbl for 2014 ($105.7/bbl in December 2013 OMS) and $103.85 for 2015
  • World oil supply up by 0.6 million b/d in 2013, only half of world oil demand (1.2 million b/d)
  • CAPEX and E&P to grow at only 6% y-o-y in 2014 (10% in 2013) but still at record high; yet oil majors’ profit margins squeezed
  • We forecast world oil demand growth by 1.1 million b/d in 2014, in line with the IMF’s GDP projections – fundamental demand outlook remains positive
  • Mounting concerns over China and emerging economies, and positive diplomatic developments in the Iranian-P5+1 negotiations weighing on oil prices in January

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