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Oil Market Snapshot – December 2017 OPEC's New Year's Resolution: The Same As Last Year

Brent holds above $63/bbl as Forties pipeline shutdown amplifies bullish sentiment. As futures continue to rise, so do our latest price forecasts with our global supply and demand growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018 remaining unchanged. US crude inventories continue to fall, while gasoline inventories are pushing higher and uncertainty over the size of US LTO production growth next year remains. Though the EIA has converged towards our forecasts, the IEA holds a different view, in which weaker demand and stronger supply will see inventories grow in 2018. We expect to revise our 2018 supply forecast upward in January as more details on US LTO companies’ spending plans come in next month and OPEC’s meeting on 30th November saw the cartel meet market expectations in agreeing a nine month extension to its production cut deal with non-OPEC nations. We present highlights from the most recent edition of our Deepwater Insights series, examining future prospects in Africa. Finally, we would like to thank all our readers for their continued custom, and wish you all a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year....

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