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Bakken Monitor – June 2018 EIA and Rystad forecasts compared

North Dakota's March oil production dipped to 1.162 million b/d (-12,000 b/d m-o-m), slightly below our forecast of 1.172 million b/d but in line with expectations of lower production from new completions. We see production higher in April as activity starts to increase. Following on from last month’s examination of the EIA’s long-term forecast, we analyse Rystad Energy’s long-term LTO expectations. Though at first glance more aggressive than the EIA, Rystad appears to be making a ‘maximum possible’ estimate rather than predicting the future. We apply some decline curves derived from empirical data to indicate the challenge of ramping LTO production to its maximal extent. In M&A news, BHP continues sale of its LTO assets, but does not expect to close all deals until 2019....

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