OMS_March-2017

Oil Market Snapshot – March 2017

  • Brent fell to $50/bbl in mid-March on market concerns about the OPEC/non-OPEC production agreement’s ability to reduce inventories
  • We trim our 2017 and 2018 average Brent forecasts to $55.46/bbl (-$0.55/bbl on previous forecast) and $57.18/bbl (-$2.45/bbl), respectively
  • Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih fired a warning shot to his partners and the market at CERAWeek in Houston, saying the country would not tolerate “free-riders”
  • We expect oil demand to rise by 1.47 million b/d in 2017 (-0.12 million b/d on previous forecast), mainly driven by China and India
  • India will face curtailed demand growth this year as a result of demonetisation OPEC compliance improved to 84% in February, but is still reliant on three members supporting less compliant nations
  • We consider it likely OPEC’s production deal extends beyond June on similar terms
  • US production has grown mostly from offshore rather than LTO as yet, filling crude and gasoline inventories as refinery runs fall

Please log in to view
the rest of this report.


Not yet a subscriber?
Contact us today!

If you do not yet have an account with us and would like to register or find out more, please contact us using our client services form, send an email to admin@petrologica.com or call us on +44(0)1206 823 295.