Bakken Monitor – January 2017

  • North Dakota's oil production rose to 1.043 million b/d in October from 0.972 million b/d in September (+0.071 million b/d m-o-m), the largest ever single month increase
  • October regained production lost in August as Whiting completed 13 wells on its prolific ‘Twin Valley’ acreage while older wells also saw gains
  • We forecast production of 1.030 million b/d in November (-13,000 b/d m-o-m) as we see October production figures as boosted by output from temporarily shut-in older wells
  • The November OPEC deal has allowed LTO producers back into the credit markets, which we see as more indicative of a potential return than further hedging
  • Our new model for US LTO production sees 2017 production at 4.26 million b/d (-227,000 b/d y-o-y), though our best-case scenario limits decline to 0.173 million b/d

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