Bakken Monitor – December 2016

  • North Dakota's oil production fell to 971,658 b/d in September from 981,038 b/d in August (-9,380 b/d m-o-m) missing our forecast of 993,000 b/d
  • September did not see the recovery we anticipated from older wells, as we understand that well maintenance is being postponed to after OPEC’s meeting
  • We forecast production of 955,000 b/d in October (-16,000 b/d m-o-m) as sources suggest older wells will continue to underproduce due to delayed maintenance work
  • In overviewing third quarter results for the sector, we find that $7.43 billion capex would be needed to hold 2017 North Dakota production at 2016 exit levels
  • Based on current well parameters, North Dakota needs 1134 completed wells to hold production steady, though production would flatten by 4Q2017 at current rates
  • OPEC’s production agreement will have a limited positive effect on LTO production in 2017, but if prices hold up over the year 2018 should see some recovery

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