Brent closed at c. $84.32/bbl on the 28th October, up c. $6/bbl on where it was at the end of September, though easing by a couple of dollars on news of renewed US-Iran nuclear negotiations
We raise our Brent annual average forecast to $71.30/bbl in 2021 (+$2.09/bbl on previous)
We see prices rising in 2022 to $73.09/bbl (+$2.37/bbl on previous), though we expect significant volatility
Our 2021 demand growth forecast rises to 5.54 million b/d (+250,000 b/d on previous), incorporating potential gas-to-oil fuel switching, primarily in Asian economies
Still, supply bottlenecks and rising prices, particularly in energy, combine with COVID to provide downside risks to demand
The IMF has recently decreased its estimates of global GDP growth for both 2021 and 2022, for example
We raise our 2021 supply growth forecast to 1.58 million b/d (+70,000 b/d on previous) as various outages are easing, most notably in the US and Nigeria
We see the market in deficit by 2.03 million b/d in 2021, while a surplus of 1.06 million b/d will occur in 2022 if OPEC+ unwinds on schedule
As the OPEC+ unw...
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