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Oil Market Snapshot – November 2020 Brent Rebounds in November as Vaccine News Dominates

  • Brent has hit $48bbl this week and averaged $42.42/bbl in November so far, up c. $2.23/bbl against October, as positive vaccine news fuels optimism for future oil demand
  • Buying of contracts further out in the futures curve has dragged spot prices higher even as many OECD nations face tighter economic restrictions due to increasing COVID-19 cases
  • We see Brent averaging $41.23/bbl in 2020 and $48.27/bbl in 2021 (-$0.48/bbl and -$1.76/bbl, respectively), down from October on the potential for disappointing economic news
  • Our global demand growth forecast for 2020 decreases to -9.06 million b/d (-550,000 b/d on previous) due to lost economic activity from further lockdown measures
  • Our global supply growth forecast for 2020 decreases to -6.61 million b/d in 2020 (-10,000 b/d on previous) due to some delays in non-OPEC output
  • We see an overall stock build of c. 563 million bbl in 2020, led by stockpiling in China in the early part of the year
  • The narrow nature of Biden's win in the US presidential election suggests that, contrary to consensus expectations, an already cautious centrist candidate is unlikely to pursue a radical green agenda
  • Saudi Arabia appears to have reversed its hawkish position on compliance, as discontent grows amongst OPEC+ members ahead of a crucial meeting aimed at rolling over existing targets
  • A substantial global economic recovery should not be expected before a global vaccination programme is underway (2H 2021)

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