Brent prices recovered significantly by 6.5% to c. $46/bbl from around $43/bbl on 16th November, as Saudi Arabia indicated willingness to support oil prices and tensions flared between Russia and Turkey
Our reference case for 2015 and 2016 Brent prices remains broadly unchanged at $53.59/bbl for 2015 and $56.60/bbl for 2016
Our demand forecasts stand at 1.5 million b/d annual growth for both 2015 and 2016; -0.3 million b/d for 2015 and +0.3 million b/d for 2016, 17% below and 25% above IEA projections respectively
We see global production growth of only 0.77 million b/d based on an LTO decline of 916,000 b/d in 2016, but for oversupply to continue into 2016
We expect OPEC to hold firm to its production strategy at its December meeting as the necessary consensus for change is likely to remain elusive
Decommissioning activity in the UK North Sea is expected to increase significantly over the next decade, exacerbated by the oil price collapse
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