Add to Basket £59.99 inc VAT

Oil Market Snapshot – March 2021 Brent Volatile On OPEC+ Surprise, Euro Lockdowns, and One Stuck Ship

  • Rising sharply after the March OPEC+ meeting's surprise result, Brent is now trading c. $63/bbl, having flirted with $60/bbl on fresh European lockdowns before the EverGiven got stuck in the Suez Canal
  • Despite this, we increase our Brent annual average forecast to $60.01/bbl in 2021 (+$3.05/bbl on previous), due to the initially firmer prices post-meeting and a likely slower OPEC+ unwind
  • Our 2021 demand growth forecast rises slightly to +5.88 million b/d (+50,000 b/d on previous), on the expectation that restrictions in the OECD give way to economic recovery from 2Q20
  • In the immediate future, further restrictions slow the demand recovery in Europe, while delays to the vaccine rollout there may exacerbate the situation
  • After surprising the market by holding most quotas unchanged last month, we expect a similar result in OPEC+'s April 1st meeting
  • This would continue a trend of Russia getting the best of it at the negotiating table, as it continues to gain market share while extra Saudi cuts support prices
  • IEA projections see oil demand growing steadily through to 2026, though by ever smaller amounts, while Gulf oil underpinning supply growth
  • The Agency does not see oil and gas capex recovering to 2019's spending levels before 2022, meaning majors will have to do more with less for some time to avoid a supply crunch
  • We decrease our 2021 supply growth forecast to 3.32 million b/d (-210,000 b/d on previous), with the extended cuts on the OPEC side of the deal making much of the difference

Please purchase or subscribe to this report to continue reading or log in if you have already done so.

Not yet a subscriber?
Subscribe and Save 20%

If you are interested in a corporate subscription, please contact us at or call us on +44(0)1206 823 295.