← Back to Blog

Oil Market Snapshot – June 2022

  • The EU has agreed direct and secondary sanctions on Russian oil, pushing prices toward $120/bbl
  • We forecast global demand growth of 2.38 million b/d for 2022 (-260,000 b/d on previous), which would keep demand below 2019 levels for another year
  • China's lockdowns have hurt demand there, but pent-up demand may now add to a tight market in the high demand summer season
  • We forecast global supply growth of 3 million b/d in 2022 (-970,000 b/d on previous), with non-US non-OPEC production declining due to lost Russian production
  • We see Russia losing 2.8 million b/d by YE22, when the sanctions are fully in place, and few alternative sources of supply
  • OPEC+ has signalled continuing with the existing agreement, but there are rumours the group is considering an exemption for Russia
  • We consider this difficult to achieve by the meeting on 2nd June, but more plausible for later meetings
  • We see a deficit of 1.83 million b/d in 2022 (650,000 b/d larger than previous) leaving the market very tight and consumer countries hoping for the Iran deal to be resolved soon

Please log in to view
the rest of this report.

Not yet a subscriber?
Contact us today!

If you do not yet have an account with us and would like to register or find out more, please contact us using our client services form, send an email to admin@petrologica.com or call us on +44(0)1206 823 295.

by Graham Walker // 1 June, 2022

←   Back to Blog