Brent has risen to above $75/bbl, after a dip to $72/bbl when the US Federal Reserve indicated it may raise interest rates to counter inflation- Still, we increase our Brent annual average forecast to $66.74/bbl in 2021 (+$2.51/bbl on previous) as the fundamentals remain price constructive
- Our 2021 demand growth forecast rises to 5.99 million b/d (+250,000 b/d on previous), as generally positive demand data and falling inventories overmatch some non-OECD weakness
- Global inventories may well be back at the pre-2020 five year average, while global economic data and revisions continue to be relatively positive
- We decrease our 2021 supply growth forecast to 2.94 million b/d (-30,000 b/d on previous), as delays and maintenance combine with low capex to prevent a full supply recovery, again supporting prices
- The reconstruction of the Iranian nuclear deal has hit some snags, potentially delaying the return of Iranian production further
- OPEC+ looks set to continue along a cautious path in its cuts taper, with some countries like Angola unable to return lost production
- We see the market in defi...
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by Graham Walker // 25 June, 2021
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