July starts with Brent trading c. $111/bbl, down $6/bbl against the start of June, after yet another volatile month as tight supply and recession concerns do battle
We forecast global demand growth of 2.33 million b/d for 2022 (-50,000 b/d on previous), which would keep demand below 2019 levels for another year
China's lockdowns continue to hamper demand, but the country is stocking up on discounted Russian crude, while US demand growth slows as inflation hits a 40 year high
We forecast global supply growth of 3.5 million b/d in 2022 (+500,000 b/d on previous), recalibrating Russian production upward due to weakening efficacy of Western sanctions
Russian production has reportedly recovered to c. 9.8 million b/d, though it remains to be seen how temporary this is
Major outages in Libya and Ecuador take 850,000 b/d off the market, while Saudi increases fail to keep pace with quotas
OPEC+ will end its current quotas a month early, and will now have to negotiate its next phase as soon as 3rd August
It will be a tricky negotiation for Saudi Arabia, as the Kingdom attempts to steer between its...
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