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Oil Market Snapshot – July 2021 Brent Back Around $74/bbl After Post-OPEC+ "Dump and Pump"

  • Brent is now trading around $74/bbl, after a 10% drop of $7.72 and recovery after the next phase of the OPEC+ deal was announced, with firm demand and slow production growth supporting prices
  • We increase our Brent annual average forecast to $68.28/bbl in 2021 (+$1.54/bbl on previous), with fundamentals still pointing to firm prices
  • Our 2021 demand growth forecast falls to 5.42 million b/d (-570,000 b/d on previous) on demand data downward revisions
  • Demand growth will still outpace production growth, but the pace of recovery appears to be slowing according to the latest data from China
  • We decrease our 2021 production growth forecast to 1.62 million b/d (-1.35 million b/d on previous), as OPEC+ opts for a cautious cuts taper and other producers struggle to add barrels
  • The talks on revival of the Iranian nuclear deal will not continue until the new president is inaugurated in early August, while Iran has started exporting from its new Jask terminal, potentially allowing production to rise
  • We see the market in deficit by 1.66 million b/d in 2021, offsetting most of last year's surplus
  • Deepwater activities are picking up in 2H21 and further contracts in 2022

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