The year begins with Brent dipping below $80/bbl, as recession fears continue and China’s abandonment of “zero COVID” has led to a wave of infections and hospitalisations
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine ongoing and global energy markets are still reacting, volatility remains likely in the year ahead, though perhaps less intense than in 2022
We see global demand growth of 2.19 million b/d in 2022 (unchanged on previous)
For 2023, we forecast demand growth of 1.44 million b/d (+50,000 b/d), lower than that in 2022 as high energy prices impacting economy and weakening demand
We peg 2022’s global production growth at 4.03 million b/d (-10,000 b/d on previous) based on revisions to OPEC+ output and maintenance losses in Canada, Kazakhstan and Norway
Global production growth falls to 1.63 million b/d in 2023 (+220,000 b/d on previous) with the majority coming from outside OPEC and Russian losses limited to 900,000 b/d
We see inventories building 110,000 b/d on average in 2022 (-10,000 on previous), and 300,000 b/d in 2023 (+160,000 b/d on previous)
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