- Brent has held at $55/bbl for most of January despite a softening of the 2021 demand picture, as Saudi Arabia announced a surprise 1 million b/d "voluntary" production cut for February and March
- We see Brent averaging $53.59/bbl in 2021 (+$3.21/bbl), reflecting improved market sentiment following commencement of vaccinations, the Saudi cut and the US presidential transition
- Our global demand growth forecast for 2020 falls to -8.95 million b/d (-20,000 b/d on previous) with the re-imposition of lockdown measures that, nevertheless, are less restrictive that 1H20
- However, we decrease our 2021 demand growth forecast to +5.83 million b/d (-110,000 b/d on previous), as rising OECD cases mean restrictions are now likely to remain in place until 2Q21
- The IMF has increased its global GDP forecast to -3.5% (+0.9 p.p. on previous) and +5.5% (+0.2 p.p.) for 2020 and 2021, respectively, with China and the US to lead the recovery
- Our global supply growth forecast for 2020 increases to -6.27 million b/d (+410,000 b/d on previous), mainly due to revised US production data indicating a smaller fall in production
- We lower ...
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by Graham Walker // 29 January, 2021
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