After falling $10/bbl over the Christmas period, Brent has returned to c. $60/bbl in January, in line with our expectation that the Vienna Group’s new deal has put a floor under prices. Our current forecast, inclusive of futures prices to capture market sentiment, is for Brent to average $62.46/bbl in 2019. Two different analyses of the fundamentals point to a higher price of c. $73/bbl, however, indicating that market sentiment is to the downside as concerns over the global economy weigh. We see global demand growth of 1.53 million b/d (+40,000 b/d on previous) in 2019 on strong figures from the US, with supply growth of 940,000 b/d (-480,000 b/d on previous). Uncertainty over the global economy a major factor adding downward pressure on oil prices. As China continues to be a leading source of oil demand growth, its economic indicators are worsening is cause for concern – a resolution of the trade war with the US would boost prices. Offshore, activities are on the way back to pre-2014 price collapse levels, particularly from state owned companies including Equinor and CNOOC. The big unknown on the supply side is US production growth. Having outpaced expectations in 2018 ...