Brent is trading c. $82/bbl, up $2/bbl m-o-m, with agencies raising their expectations of global GDP growth as inflation eases, the US remains robust, and China reopens
We see global demand growth of 1.53 million b/d in 2023 (+90,000 b/d on previous), driven by non-OECD growth, reflecting the improving economic outlook
Indian demand has remained strong, while we see China once again driving global demand as the year wears on
We forecast global production growth of 1.2 million b/d in 2023 (-430,000 b/d on previous forecast) with the majority coming from outside OPEC
OPEC adds just 270,000 b/d in 2023 if policies remain the same, down from 2.58 million b/d in 2022 when the 2020 cuts deal was unwound
The latest OPEC+ meeting left quotas unchanged, and the next will be in two months
Oil majors posted record profits in 2022, with shareholder returns top priority
We expect Russia’s crude sanctions losses to be limited to 900,000 b/d, with the price cap and sanctions broadly effective, though Russia will be able to claw back some lost revenue
We see inventories drawing 90,000 b/d ...
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