Oil Market Snapshot – February 2018
Brent has seen a sharp correction, settling at c. $67/bbl as of 27th February from $71/bbl previously. Our price forecast sees Brent averaging $65-$70/bbl in 2018. Money managers have retreated slightly from their record net long position, but are still heavily long, providing the potential for a further correction. Our global demand growth forecast for 2018 is broadly unchanged, while our global supply growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are slightly higher on revised US LTO forecasts. We have revised our 2018 US LTO growth outlook up as capex becomes clearer. OPEC are rumoured to be looking to institutionalise the “OPEC-plus” deal, as part of a warming relationship between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Offshore looks to be starting its recovery in 2018, including in mature nations like Norway and the United Kingdom – we take a look at their prospective wells. Majors hold capex broadly flat, despite seeing rising revenue on flat production in 4Q17....