- December begins with Brent trading c. $87/bbl, a full $11/bbl below the first week of November but off lows of $82/bbl after China appeared to signal some easing of COVID policies
- Our global demand growth of 2.19 million b/d for 2022 (+70,000 b/d on previous), which would keep demand below 2019 levels for another year
- The narrative remains one of a weakening economic outlook, notwithstanding indications that China’s zero COVID policy may well be relaxed over the coming months
- The poor economic picture will be a factor when OPEC+ meets virtually on 4th December, with the most likely outcome no change to quotas
- We estimate the previous meeting’s quotas will see OPEC’s November production will fall by c. 750,000 b/d
- We forecast global supply growth of 4.04 million b/d in 2022 (-90,000 b/d on previous) based on revisions to OPEC+ output and maintenance losses in Canada, Kazakhstan and Norway
- Growth falls to 1.41 million b/d in 2023 (+180,000 b/d on previous), revised higher as some projects expected in 2022 now fall into 2023’s data
- With Saudi Arabia reaching its final capacity plate...
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by Graham Walker // 2 December, 2022
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