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Oil Market Snapshot – December 2020 Brent Firm at $50/bbl Despite New COVID Strain in UK

  • Brent has held above $50/bbl, up more than $7/bbl against November's average, as markets anticipate mass vaccinations despite a worsening global COVID-19 caseload
  • We see Brent averaging $41.59/bbl in 2020 and $50.38/bbl in 2021 (+0.36/bbl and +2.11/bbl, respectively), reflecting improved demand and market sentiment following commencement of vaccinations
  • Our global demand growth forecast for 2020 is revised to -8.93 million b/d (+130,000 b/d on previous) as current lockdown measures appear less stringent compared to those in 2Q20
  • Next year's demand is highly dependent on how life changes once vaccines are widely available
  • Our global supply growth forecast for 2020 decreases to -6.68 million b/d in 2020 (-70,000 b/d on previous) as Brazil's Petrobras slashes capex
  • After a contentious meeting, OPEC+ agreed to raise quotas by a maximum of 500,000 b/d for each month of 1Q21
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