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Oil Market Snapshot – December 2019

• Brent has held firm in December, trading at $66.38 on 17th December, as the OPEC+ group reached a new deal and the US-China trade war looked to be nearing a ceasefire • Our global demand growth forecasts are revised higher to 980,000 b/d (+40,000 b/d m-o-m) for 2019 and 1.48 million b/d (+200,000 b/d) for 2020 on improved economic data • Our global supply growth forecast for 2019 is revised up to 300,000 b/d (+130,000 b/d on previous), and 1.83 million b/d in 2020 (-140,000 b/d on previous), with flat OPEC growth (-230,000 on previous) in 2020 and almost all 2020 supply growth coming from non-OPEC countries , including 500,000 b/d from US LTO • We see the annual average Brent price at $64.06/bbl in 2019 and $63.64/bbl in 2020 (+$0.17 and +$1.49 on previous, respectively) • The improved demand outlook, aided by the tentative deal between the US and China, has a considerable effect on 2020’s number • OPEC+ set new targets at their meeting on 6th December, but the actual effect on production is much less than advertised as Saudi’s voluntary cut of further 400,000 b/d is only used to compensate for the other less compliance member states, however, renewed tension in Libya may result in further cuts • We see real production cuts supporting prices in the early part of 2020...

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