Brent ends April trading at c. $109/bbl after another turbulent month
We forecast global demand growth of 2.64 million b/d for 2022 (-300,000 b/d on previous)
This follows a major downgrade to global economic growth from the IMF, on the basis of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and persistent lockdowns in China
Ongoing inflation and supply chain issues combine with the direct effect of the war on the economies of Russia, Ukraine, and Europe more widely
We forecast global supply growth of 3.97 million b/d in 2022 (-71,000 b/d on previous), as Russia's production losses become more concrete
With the OPEC+ deal ending in September, the group will maintain its schedule until then barring a desperate market shortage
A coordinated stock release between the US and other IEA members should add 1.3 million b/d over six months, but Russian losses may reach as high as 3 million b/d month to month
Averaged over the whole year, the country will lose at least 1 million b/d of crude, and likely more
We see a deficit of 860,000 b/d in 2022 (410,000 b/d larger than previous) as Russia's productio...
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