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Oil Market Snapshot – April 2022

  • Brent ends April trading at c. $109/bbl after another turbulent month
  • We forecast global demand growth of 2.64 million b/d for 2022 (-300,000 b/d on previous)
  • This follows a major downgrade to global economic growth from the IMF, on the basis of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and persistent lockdowns in China
  • Ongoing inflation and supply chain issues combine with the direct effect of the war on the economies of Russia, Ukraine, and Europe more widely
  • We forecast global supply growth of 3.97 million b/d in 2022 (-71,000 b/d on previous), as Russia's production losses become more concrete
  • With the OPEC+ deal ending in September, the group will maintain its schedule until then barring a desperate market shortage
  • A coordinated stock release between the US and other IEA members should add 1.3 million b/d over six months, but Russian losses may reach as high as 3 million b/d month to month
  • Averaged over the whole year, the country will lose at least 1 million b/d of crude, and likely more
  • We see a deficit of 860,000 b/d in 2022 (410,000 b/d larger than previous) as Russia's productio...

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by Graham Walker // 29 April, 2022

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