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Bakken Monitor – May 2017 Breakeven Make-Believe

Companies continue losses across the US LTO sector despite claims of radically lower well breakevens. North Dakota's oil production rose to 1.034 million b/d in February as the remaining weather-bound production returned, in line with our forecast. We see March production broadly flat as completions hold firm. Earnings season has begun, with Hess posting a smaller quarterly loss y-o-y, which sets expectations across the industry. Companies still in the red call into question the optimistic breakeven price analyses seen across the media. Our average US LTO production forecast for 2017 is revised upward. We examine how revisions to EIA data impact our forecasts, and compare our North Dakota forecasting record with the EIA’s.

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