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Bakken Monitor — January 2016

  • North Dakota oil production increased slightly from 1.162 million b/d in September to 1.169 million b/d in October, beating our forecast of 1.125 million b/d
  • Operators forced more production from old wells in anticipation of a price cut following OPEC’s December meeting, according to North Dakota officials
  • We thus increase our forecast to 1.136 million b/d for November (-33,000 b/d m-o-m, +44,000 b/d on last forecast), and include a high case of 1.179 million b/d assuming a similar number of older wells restart production
  • Our total 2016 US LTO production decline forecast is now 865,000 b/d (-114,000 b/d on previous forecast)
  • Current guidance from two of the top three North Dakota producers suggests significant production declines in 2016

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